the canary in the coal mine, and other tales from surviving recessions and worse...
I always felt like photographers and designers saw the economy coming, got hit first, and recovered sooner than most other sectors of the economy. That was because of a couple of things... when money started drying up, assignments took the first hit. Either they went away altogether, or they went into a state of "crisis mode"- you got jobs that had to get shot, and as cheaply as possible, and everything else went on hold. That, and the "bartender factor". During a shoot I'd hear more than I even really wanted to about every facet of the company, and if I was on location I'd hear it from the guy at the loading dock as well as the CEO.
Well, for the last few months I've talked to hundreds of people in photography, design, architecture, video, and it's bad out there. No, really, huh? I'm saying really, really bad. I started my business in 1976, and no sooner did so than we dove into a recession, officially in 1980. Here's a list, if you're interested. This is the worst I've seen it. It's scaring the crap out of me.
What's really alarming is the drastic change between last Fall, oh, let's say around November, and now. Back then I had people telling me they had a great year, but were scared to death to do anything major, in terms of expenses, until they saw how the first quarter of '09 looked, and they are not doing a thing now. They are hunkering down, holding off. I have people telling me they made major purchases in November and now they wish they hadn't.
My personal forecast? I've heard people in the photo industry say it's not going to even start to level off until maybe the third quarter of 2009. I don't think, from what I've heard, you're going to see property values even level off until Fall. People are going to lose their jobs and their homes, and especially in New England. (This area has long suffered what Jay Callum at EP Levine calls the "Boston Effect". People seem to like to hold on to their money here, more than other parts of the country. That theory is based on decades of photo retail, for him, and is backed up by every Sales Rep. EPL had.)
How do you survive this? Work your ass off.
Now is the time that you're going to see the results of your marketing, promotion and, well, salesmanship from the "good years". If you squandered your assets then, you're going to feel it now. If you have done your work well, you're going to be better protected through the "perfect storm". It's a good time to look at what you did and evaluate your strategies. One of the things that an official Marketing Plan has is tracking. There is, built in, a way to look at what the plan does, and see the results. Small businesses sometimes miss that part, but when things get bad, it's pretty easy to see the wheat for the chaff- what worked, and what was a waste of resources.
I've got a list of pithy advice. Here it is.
Simplify.
Now is the time to separate what you want from what you need. When you're self-employed you don't have anyone to review your requests, to reject expenses, and it comes down to clear thinking and discipline. "Make do, do without." But above all, make it work. I made $25,000 more this year, want to know how? We decided to not buy a car. We're now a one-car family, and it's sometimes a little less than convenient, but it's a step towards a "greener" commitment, and a more secure financial position.
Talk to people.
Or, as my old friend Bryce says, "The old ways are the best." Email, Facebook, IM, Twitter, they're all good (well, except Twitter, that's just dumb), but people do business with people. Talk. See. Be seen. Not only will you be meeting new people and seeing old, familiar faces, but in this age of ether and isolation, you'll just feel better, too. (Bryce, by the way, doesn't even know we have a recession on. He's busier than crap.) Which leads me to:
Don't take the economy personal.
Although sometimes you may feel this way, especially if you're out of work, but it's not about you, and you're not the only one feeling pain. I learned this lesson early on, watching a very well-qualified friend struggle in the early '80s, trying to find work. He was taking it personally, questioning himself, and getting completely demoralized. When a hurricane hits, it's not hitting because of you. The idea is to be smart, keep plugging, and have confidence in yourself and your own judgment.
There are no bad jobs, no bad clients.
Once I was told to be careful what jobs you take, because they will point the direction of your career. You get more work like the work you got.
This is not the time for that advice.
This is the time that every single job, every single client, is your new, best job, your favorite client. You can't afford to pass anything up, you can't, especially, afford to lose a single client. This is especially difficult with clients that are tough to work for, or jobs that look like they won't be very profitable. I can only say this. One of the only ways I made it through the hard times I did was because of maybe one or two clients pulling me through. I distinctly remember thinking "thank GOD I didn't tell that jerk to piss off when I wanted to..." because that jerk was the sole reason I was still in business.
This means sucking it up, taking abuse, swallowing your pride, kissing butt. The joke we always say is "I don't mind being a whore, it's being a cheap whore that bothers me..." Well, now's the time you're deciding if you have the stomach to being a creative whore at all, as harsh as that sounds.
Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em.
If you're talking to people and you're listening, and you're checking your ego and self-delusion at the door, you're going to get a pretty clear picture of how things are. In the late '90s I was seeing my work dry up, I was having burn-out issues anyway, and had a chance at a job, and took it. Looking back, and talking to many of my old clients, I was reassured by, at least, having made the right decision. A good friend, a client, said to me a few years later, "Ted, you called that one perfectly... we should never have tried to hold on." It felt that way at the time, but when you're making a decision like that you have to have huge trust in your judgment, and in your gut.
Also, this goes hand in hand with the old windsurfing advice- "Never leave wind to find wind." If you're leaving one ship for another, make damn sure that ship isn't sinking, at least faster than the one you're on... This is no time for a "hail Mary", and I say that from experience. (Remind me to tell you some day about Royalty-Free, Limited-Edition Stock Photography and the $10,000 it cost me that I didn't have...) This is the time to make smart, calculated moves.
...
Depressing advice? Maybe, but there are two lessons I've learned from "perfect storm" experiences. It's one thing to treat a normal storm with denial, to keep plodding along, ignoring the gathering clouds. Most of the time, that's how we cope with stress and survive. If it's the "perfect" storm, though, and you're in denial, it will be your undoing. See the situation for what it is, and make your best call. You can't afford to not.
...and this, my friends, is going to be a storm of devastating, historic proportions, the likes of which we've never seen.
Well, for the last few months I've talked to hundreds of people in photography, design, architecture, video, and it's bad out there. No, really, huh? I'm saying really, really bad. I started my business in 1976, and no sooner did so than we dove into a recession, officially in 1980. Here's a list, if you're interested. This is the worst I've seen it. It's scaring the crap out of me.
What's really alarming is the drastic change between last Fall, oh, let's say around November, and now. Back then I had people telling me they had a great year, but were scared to death to do anything major, in terms of expenses, until they saw how the first quarter of '09 looked, and they are not doing a thing now. They are hunkering down, holding off. I have people telling me they made major purchases in November and now they wish they hadn't.
My personal forecast? I've heard people in the photo industry say it's not going to even start to level off until maybe the third quarter of 2009. I don't think, from what I've heard, you're going to see property values even level off until Fall. People are going to lose their jobs and their homes, and especially in New England. (This area has long suffered what Jay Callum at EP Levine calls the "Boston Effect". People seem to like to hold on to their money here, more than other parts of the country. That theory is based on decades of photo retail, for him, and is backed up by every Sales Rep. EPL had.)
How do you survive this? Work your ass off.
Now is the time that you're going to see the results of your marketing, promotion and, well, salesmanship from the "good years". If you squandered your assets then, you're going to feel it now. If you have done your work well, you're going to be better protected through the "perfect storm". It's a good time to look at what you did and evaluate your strategies. One of the things that an official Marketing Plan has is tracking. There is, built in, a way to look at what the plan does, and see the results. Small businesses sometimes miss that part, but when things get bad, it's pretty easy to see the wheat for the chaff- what worked, and what was a waste of resources.
I've got a list of pithy advice. Here it is.
Simplify.
Now is the time to separate what you want from what you need. When you're self-employed you don't have anyone to review your requests, to reject expenses, and it comes down to clear thinking and discipline. "Make do, do without." But above all, make it work. I made $25,000 more this year, want to know how? We decided to not buy a car. We're now a one-car family, and it's sometimes a little less than convenient, but it's a step towards a "greener" commitment, and a more secure financial position.
Talk to people.
Or, as my old friend Bryce says, "The old ways are the best." Email, Facebook, IM, Twitter, they're all good (well, except Twitter, that's just dumb), but people do business with people. Talk. See. Be seen. Not only will you be meeting new people and seeing old, familiar faces, but in this age of ether and isolation, you'll just feel better, too. (Bryce, by the way, doesn't even know we have a recession on. He's busier than crap.) Which leads me to:
Don't take the economy personal.
Although sometimes you may feel this way, especially if you're out of work, but it's not about you, and you're not the only one feeling pain. I learned this lesson early on, watching a very well-qualified friend struggle in the early '80s, trying to find work. He was taking it personally, questioning himself, and getting completely demoralized. When a hurricane hits, it's not hitting because of you. The idea is to be smart, keep plugging, and have confidence in yourself and your own judgment.
There are no bad jobs, no bad clients.
Once I was told to be careful what jobs you take, because they will point the direction of your career. You get more work like the work you got.
This is not the time for that advice.
This is the time that every single job, every single client, is your new, best job, your favorite client. You can't afford to pass anything up, you can't, especially, afford to lose a single client. This is especially difficult with clients that are tough to work for, or jobs that look like they won't be very profitable. I can only say this. One of the only ways I made it through the hard times I did was because of maybe one or two clients pulling me through. I distinctly remember thinking "thank GOD I didn't tell that jerk to piss off when I wanted to..." because that jerk was the sole reason I was still in business.
This means sucking it up, taking abuse, swallowing your pride, kissing butt. The joke we always say is "I don't mind being a whore, it's being a cheap whore that bothers me..." Well, now's the time you're deciding if you have the stomach to being a creative whore at all, as harsh as that sounds.
Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em.
If you're talking to people and you're listening, and you're checking your ego and self-delusion at the door, you're going to get a pretty clear picture of how things are. In the late '90s I was seeing my work dry up, I was having burn-out issues anyway, and had a chance at a job, and took it. Looking back, and talking to many of my old clients, I was reassured by, at least, having made the right decision. A good friend, a client, said to me a few years later, "Ted, you called that one perfectly... we should never have tried to hold on." It felt that way at the time, but when you're making a decision like that you have to have huge trust in your judgment, and in your gut.
Also, this goes hand in hand with the old windsurfing advice- "Never leave wind to find wind." If you're leaving one ship for another, make damn sure that ship isn't sinking, at least faster than the one you're on... This is no time for a "hail Mary", and I say that from experience. (Remind me to tell you some day about Royalty-Free, Limited-Edition Stock Photography and the $10,000 it cost me that I didn't have...) This is the time to make smart, calculated moves.
...
Depressing advice? Maybe, but there are two lessons I've learned from "perfect storm" experiences. It's one thing to treat a normal storm with denial, to keep plodding along, ignoring the gathering clouds. Most of the time, that's how we cope with stress and survive. If it's the "perfect" storm, though, and you're in denial, it will be your undoing. See the situation for what it is, and make your best call. You can't afford to not.
...and this, my friends, is going to be a storm of devastating, historic proportions, the likes of which we've never seen.
posted by Ted Dillard at
7:34 AM
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